College football has always been my passion.
As a teenager, I had a Saturday morning ritual in autumn. I put on the turntable an album of college marching bands. I played college fight songs on the piano. I perused "Street & Smiths College Football Magazine".
Organically, I became a fan of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I am a native Ohioan, and would eventually graduate as an Ohio Bobcat, but geography has never been important to me in terms of sports.
Once I retired from the information technology industry, specializing in numerous database platforms, I found myself with a lot of time to fill. I had never been proficient at making predictions, so I decided to delve into the world of metrics, still in its infancy at the time. The result is what you see on these pages.
This innovative college football preseason prediction model has been around since 2011. It has gone through a few rebrands, starting as "Fort Heresy", becoming "Cap Heresy", and finally moving to its current iteration "CFB Model by Dunham" (MBD). Here are some of the historical accomplishments of the model in terms of prediction accuracy:
5 years cumulative 2013-2017 (see "Cap Heresy")
Hiatus 2018 through 2020
3 years cumulative 2021-2023 (see "CFB Model by Dunham")
Historical prediction accuracy is also referenced in “Phil Steele’s 2025 College Football Preview” magazine on page 7 (see “Dunham /Cap Heresy”).