CFB Model by Dunham


TeamVFHVFA
Air Force 3.54 -2.31
Akron -3.54 -4.41
Alabama 5.58 2.10
Appalachian State 3.59 2.65
Arizona 4.61 -6.35
Arizona State 6.45 -2.34
Arkansas 1.87 -6.07
Arkansas State 3.96 -2.96
Army 2.45 -1.33
Auburn 5.18 -3.92
Ball State -0.02 -1.89
Baylor 5.74 -3.64
Boise State 4.11 2.47
Boston College 0.40 -2.41
Bowling Green -0.58 -2.81
Brigham Young 2.17 0.21
Buffalo 5.17 -3.99
California 2.41 -5.93
Central Florida 4.32 -0.27
Central Michigan 1.81 -0.30
Charlotte 1.14 -3.77
Cincinnati 6.69 -1.54
Clemson 3.61 -0.20
Coastal Carolina 2.69 -2.68
Colorado 4.51 -8.41
Colorado State 3.71 -2.66
Connecticut 1.24 -6.91
Duke -1.16 -3.05
East Carolina 4.44 -5.06
Eastern Michigan -1.05 -2.23
Florida 4.20 -1.25
Florida Atlantic 2.03 -4.05
Florida International 1.55 -4.51
Florida State 4.28 -2.36
Fresno State 3.20 -0.58
Georgia 7.04 0.59
Georgia Southern 6.01 -4.28
Georgia State -1.81 -1.15
Georgia Tech 1.32 -2.75
Hawaii 1.36 -4.58
Houston 6.19 0.90
Illinois -0.64 -4.91
Indiana 1.45 -3.57
Iowa 4.06 1.08
Iowa State 5.50 -3.37
James Madison 2.69 -2.68
Kansas -2.15 -9.84
Kansas State 4.05 -1.88
Kent State 2.36 -4.59
Kentucky 2.62 -4.07
Liberty 2.69 -2.68
Louisiana 1.05 -0.23
Louisiana State 4.28 -3.95
Louisiana Tech 5.11 -2.79
Louisville 3.02 -1.78
Marshall 4.01 -2.49
Maryland -1.54 -4.91
Massachusetts 0.07 -8.87
Memphis 4.38 -3.41
Miami (FL) 4.78 0.56
Miami (OH) 2.05 -5.57
Michigan 6.54 -2.11
Michigan State 1.93 -2.17
Middle Tennessee 4.63 -3.82
Minnesota 2.09 -2.76
Mississippi 3.39 -4.81
Mississippi State 4.05 -1.51
Missouri 2.20 -2.08
Navy -0.50 -2.31
Nebraska 2.95 -1.71
Nevada 6.12 -2.65
New Mexico -0.27 -6.19
New Mexico State 0.03 -7.70
North Carolina 3.73 -2.34
North Carolina State 3.54 -3.66
North Texas 3.46 -3.84
Northern Illinois 4.73 0.34
Northwestern 0.52 -1.59
Notre Dame 3.90 -1.18
Ohio 4.86 -2.36
Ohio State 6.94 0.74
Oklahoma 5.45 -0.54
Oklahoma State 3.69 -0.61
Old Dominion 0.91 -3.32
Oregon 6.06 -1.21
Oregon State 0.45 -4.30
Penn State 3.86 -0.66
Pittsburgh 2.12 0.26
Purdue -0.67 -1.54
Rice 0.47 -6.02
Rutgers -1.46 -3.43
San Diego State 3.19 -1.39
San Jose State -0.61 -4.71
South Alabama 3.79 -3.61
South Carolina 3.18 -3.57
South Florida -0.35 -2.83
Southern California 3.09 -1.73
Southern Methodist 2.89 -5.22
Southern Mississippi 0.09 -2.07
Stanford 2.10 -1.97
Syracuse 0.40 -4.57
Temple 2.26 -0.71
Tennessee 1.02 -4.91
Texas 2.02 -2.69
Texas A&M 5.20 -1.75
Texas Christian 4.21 0.91
Texas State 0.84 -3.56
Texas Tech 1.16 -3.73
Toledo 3.39 -0.28
Troy -0.26 -2.17
Tulane 1.67 -5.25
Tulsa -0.93 -2.22
UAB 4.00 -4.05
UCLA 3.08 -2.65
ULM -0.42 -4.83
UNLV 1.01 -6.80
Utah 4.00 -0.25
Utah State 0.78 -1.35
UTEP 2.49 -5.36
UTSA 2.10 -0.93
Vanderbilt -1.29 -2.47
Virginia 0.78 -2.91
Virginia Tech 4.66 -0.03
Wake Forest 1.89 -3.89
Washington 4.69 -3.68
Washington State 4.69 -3.12
West Virginia 7.45 -3.41
Western Kentucky 3.48 -0.69
Western Michigan 3.47 -0.38
Wisconsin 6.34 0.45
Wyoming 1.13 -3.09



VFH is the Venue Factor (when) Home, traditionally called Home Field Advantage. VFA is the Venue Factor (when) Away.

The factors are derived from a deconstruction of the Massey Power Ratings for FBS games played in 2009-2021, excluding 2020. Teams with insufficient FBS history are assigned the national averages (colored red).

For example, consider the Illinois home game versus Nebraska in 2019. Per the Massey ratings at the end of the 2019 season, and looking backward, Nebraska would have been expected to beat Illinois by 7 points (computed as 6.60) had the game been played at a neutral site. Nebraska won by 4, therefore +2.60 (6.60-4) was applied to the Illinois VFH and -2.60 was applied to the Nebraska VFA.

Overtime games are handled differently. If 1 OT, the actual margin is divided by 3. If 2 OTs, the actual margin is divided by 4. If 3 or more OTs, the actual margin is set to 0.

Many values may seem intuitively to be too high or too low. The reason for that lies in the Massey ratings (or any other rating system you might prefer). For instance, if the VFH seems too low, it can be equally argued that the rating is too high. In other words, it is all relative.